Minnesota 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Minnesota 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Minnesota 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Brad Finstad a 85.2% chance of defeating Democrat Jake Johnson. Pollsmax projects Finstad to receive 54.5% of the vote compared with 45.5% for Johnson, a projected Republican margin of 9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Minnesota 1st District House election features Democrat Jake Johnson and Republican Brad Finstad. Incumbent Representative Brad Finstad is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Minnesota's 1st congressional district by 6.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.