Democrats
DEMOCRATIC
—
Minnesota1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Brad Finstad*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-MN)
2022 – Present
2026 Minnesota 1st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Minnesota's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat TBD and Republican Brad Finstad. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Minnesota 1st District House election features Democrat TBD and Republican Brad Finstad. Incumbent Representative Brad Finstad is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Minnesota's 1st congressional district by 6.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- MN-1
- Democratic candidate
- TBD
- Republican candidate
- Brad Finstad
- Incumbent / open seat
- Brad Finstad
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 45.0% D / 55.0% R
- Projected margin
- R +10.0
- Forecast odds
- 12.0% D / 88.0% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —