Democrats
DEMOCRATIC
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Virginia5th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
John McGuire*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-VA)
2025 – Present
2026 Virginia 5th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Virginia's 5th congressional district House election between Democrat TBD and Republican John McGuire. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Virginia 5th District House election features Democrat TBD and Republican John McGuire. Incumbent Representative John McGuire is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Virginia's 5th congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- VA-5
- Democratic candidate
- TBD
- Republican candidate
- John McGuire
- Incumbent / open seat
- John McGuire
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 45.0% D / 55.1% R
- Projected margin
- R +10.1
- Forecast odds
- 12.2% D / 87.8% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
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- Polling last updated
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- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
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