Virginia 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Virginia 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Virginia 5th District House forecast currently gives Republican John McGuire a 87.4% chance of defeating Democrat Tom Perriello. Pollsmax projects McGuire to receive 55% of the vote compared with 45.1% for Perriello, a projected Republican margin of 9.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Virginia 5th District House election features Democrat Tom Perriello and Republican John McGuire. Incumbent Representative John McGuire is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Virginia's 5th congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.