California33rd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 California 33rd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for California's 33rd congressional district House election between Democrat Pete Aguilar and Republican Stephanie Vargas. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 California 33rd District House election features Democrat Pete Aguilar and Republican Stephanie Vargas. Incumbent Representative Pete Aguilar is seeking reelection to a seventh term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 33rd congressional district by 14.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CA-33
- Democratic candidate
- Pete Aguilar
- Republican candidate
- Stephanie Vargas
- Incumbent / open seat
- Pete Aguilar
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 64.8% D / 35.2% R
- Projected margin
- D +29.6
- Forecast odds
- 99.8% D / 0.2% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —