California 332026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 33rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 33rd District House forecast currently gives Democrat Pete Aguilar a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Stephanie Vargas. Pollsmax projects Aguilar to receive 64.9% of the vote compared with 35.1% for Vargas, a projected Democratic margin of 29.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 33rd District House election features Democrat Pete Aguilar and Republican Stephanie Vargas. Incumbent Representative Pete Aguilar is seeking reelection to a seventh term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 33rd congressional district by 14.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.