North Carolina5th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 North Carolina 5th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for North Carolina's 5th congressional district House election between Democrat Chuck Hubbard and Republican Virginia Foxx. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 North Carolina 5th District House election features Democrat Chuck Hubbard and Republican Virginia Foxx. Incumbent Representative Virginia Foxx is seeking reelection to a twelfth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won North Carolina's 5th congressional district by 11.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. North Carolina conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- NC-5
- Democratic candidate
- Chuck Hubbard
- Republican candidate
- Virginia Foxx
- Incumbent / open seat
- Virginia Foxx
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 40.5% D / 59.5% R
- Projected margin
- R +19.0
- Forecast odds
- 3.1% D / 96.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —