Washington 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Washington 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Washington 5th District House forecast currently gives Republican Michael Baumgartner a 91.8% chance of defeating Democrat Carmela Conroy. Pollsmax projects Baumgartner to receive 54.4% of the vote compared with 45.7% for Conroy, a projected Republican margin of 8.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Washington 5th District House election features Democrat Carmela Conroy and Republican Michael Baumgartner. Incumbent Representative Michael Baumgartner is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Washington's 5th congressional district by 9.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.