Democrats
DEMOCRATIC
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Washington5th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Michael Baumgartner*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-WA)
2025 – Present
2026 Washington 5th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Washington's 5th congressional district House election between Democrat TBD and Republican Michael Baumgartner. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Washington 5th District House election features Democrat TBD and Republican Michael Baumgartner. Incumbent Representative Michael Baumgartner is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Washington's 5th congressional district by 9.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- WA-5
- Democratic candidate
- TBD
- Republican candidate
- Michael Baumgartner
- Incumbent / open seat
- Michael Baumgartner
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 44.8% D / 55.3% R
- Projected margin
- R +10.5
- Forecast odds
- 10.9% D / 89.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
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- Polling last updated
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- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
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