Louisiana 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Louisiana 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Louisiana 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Mike Johnson a 99.4% chance of defeating the Democratic nominee. Pollsmax projects Johnson to receive 63.2% of the vote compared with 36.8% for the Democratic nominee, a projected Republican margin of 26.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Louisiana 4th District House election features Democrat TBD and Republican Mike Johnson. Incumbent Representative Mike Johnson is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Louisiana's 4th congressional district by 14.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Louisiana conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.