Louisiana 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Louisiana 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Louisiana 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Mike Johnson a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Matt Gromlich. Pollsmax projects Johnson to receive 60.3% of the vote compared with 39.7% for Gromlich, a projected Republican margin of 20.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Louisiana 4th District House election features Democrat Matt Gromlich and Republican Mike Johnson. Incumbent Representative Mike Johnson is seeking reelection to a sixth term. This race is rated as solid Republican. Louisiana conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.