Missouri 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Missouri 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Missouri 5th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Emanuel Cleaver a 99.3% chance of defeating Republican Rick Brattin. Pollsmax projects Cleaver to receive 62.1% of the vote compared with 37.9% for Brattin, a projected Democratic margin of 24.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Missouri 5th District House election features Democrat Emanuel Cleaver and Republican Rick Brattin. Incumbent Representative Emanuel Cleaver is seeking reelection to a twelfth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Missouri's 5th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.