Missouri 52026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Missouri 5th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Missouri's 5th congressional district House election between Democrat Emanuel Cleaver and Republican TBD. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Missouri 5th District House election features Democrat Emanuel Cleaver and Republican TBD. Incumbent Representative Emanuel Cleaver is seeking reelection to a twelfth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Missouri's 5th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. Missouri conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- MO-5
- Democratic candidate
- Emanuel Cleaver
- Republican candidate
- TBD
- Incumbent / open seat
- Emanuel Cleaver
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 46.8% D / 53.3% R
- Projected margin
- R +6.5
- Forecast odds
- 17.5% D / 82.5% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —