New York 252026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New York 25th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York 25th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Joseph Morelle a 99.3% chance of defeating Republican Virginia McIntyre. Pollsmax projects Morelle to receive 61.9% of the vote compared with 38.1% for McIntyre, a projected Democratic margin of 23.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York 25th District House election features Democrat Joseph Morelle and Republican Virginia McIntyre. Incumbent Representative Joseph Morelle is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New York's 25th congressional district by 6.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.