Florida 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Jimmy Patronis a 99.7% chance of defeating Democrat Gay Valimont. Pollsmax projects Patronis to receive 64.6% of the vote compared with 35.5% for Valimont, a projected Republican margin of 29.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 1st District House election features Democrat Gay Valimont and Republican Jimmy Patronis. Incumbent Representative Jimmy Patronis is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida's 1st congressional district by 23.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.