Florida1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Florida 1st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Florida's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Gay Valimont and Republican Jimmy Patronis. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Florida 1st District House election features Democrat Gay Valimont and Republican Jimmy Patronis. Incumbent Representative Jimmy Patronis is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida's 1st congressional district by 23.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- FL-1
- Democratic candidate
- Gay Valimont
- Republican candidate
- Jimmy Patronis
- Incumbent / open seat
- Jimmy Patronis
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 35.5% D / 64.5% R
- Projected margin
- R +29.0
- Forecast odds
- 0.2% D / 99.8% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —