Florida 142026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 14th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 14th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Kathy Castor a 64.4% chance of defeating Republican Mike Beltran. Pollsmax projects Castor to receive 50.5% of the vote compared with 49.5% for Beltran, a projected Democratic margin of 1 percentage point. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 14th District House election features Democrat Kathy Castor and Republican Mike Beltran. Incumbent Representative Kathy Castor is seeking reelection to a eleventh term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Florida's 14th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Florida seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Florida's 14th District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.