Florida 142026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 Florida 14th District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Florida's 14th congressional district House election between Democrat Kathy Castor and Republican TBD. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 Florida 14th District House election features Democrat Kathy Castor and Republican TBD. Incumbent Representative Kathy Castor is seeking reelection to a eleventh term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Florida's 14th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Florida seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Florida's 14th District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.