Minnesota 62026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Minnesota 6th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Minnesota 6th District House forecast currently gives Republican Tom Emmer a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Doug Chapin. Pollsmax projects Emmer to receive 65.7% of the vote compared with 34.4% for Chapin, a projected Republican margin of 31.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Minnesota 6th District House election features Democrat Doug Chapin and Republican Tom Emmer. Incumbent Representative Tom Emmer is seeking reelection to a seventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Minnesota's 6th congressional district by 13.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.