North Carolina1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 North Carolina 1st District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for North Carolina's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Don Davis and Republican Laurie Buckhout. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 North Carolina 1st District House election features Democrat Don Davis and Republican Laurie Buckhout. Incumbent Representative Don Davis is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won North Carolina's 1st congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive North Carolina seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. North Carolina's 1st District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. North Carolina conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.