North Carolina 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 North Carolina 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 North Carolina 1st District House forecast currently gives Democrat Don Davis a 75.5% chance of defeating Republican Laurie Buckhout. Pollsmax projects Davis to receive 51.9% of the vote compared with 48.1% for Buckhout, a projected Democratic margin of 3.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 North Carolina 1st District House election features Democrat Don Davis and Republican Laurie Buckhout. Incumbent Representative Don Davis is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won North Carolina's 1st congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive North Carolina seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. North Carolina's 1st District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. North Carolina conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.