Michael DeCillis
DEMOCRATIC
Police Officer
New York11th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Nicole Malliotakis*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-NY)
2021 – Present
2026 New York 11th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for New York's 11th congressional district House election between Democrat Michael DeCillis and Republican Nicole Malliotakis. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 New York 11th District House election features Democrat Michael DeCillis and Republican Nicole Malliotakis. Incumbent Representative Nicole Malliotakis is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New York's 11th congressional district by 4.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- NY-11
- Democratic candidate
- Michael DeCillis
- Republican candidate
- Nicole Malliotakis
- Incumbent / open seat
- Nicole Malliotakis
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 42.6% D / 57.4% R
- Projected margin
- R +14.8
- Forecast odds
- 4.5% D / 95.5% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —