New York 112026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New York 11th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York 11th District House forecast currently gives Republican Nicole Malliotakis a 95% chance of defeating Democrat Michael DeCillis. Pollsmax projects Malliotakis to receive 57.6% of the vote compared with 42.5% for DeCillis, a projected Republican margin of 15.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York 11th District House election features Democrat Michael DeCillis and Republican Nicole Malliotakis. Incumbent Representative Nicole Malliotakis is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New York's 11th congressional district by 4.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.