Kentucky 62026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Kentucky 6th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Kentucky 6th District House forecast currently gives Republican Ralph Alvarado a 86.2% chance of defeating Democrat Zach Dembo. Pollsmax projects Alvarado to receive 54.9% of the vote compared with 45.1% for Dembo, a projected Republican margin of 9.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Kentucky 6th District House election features Democrat Zach Dembo and Republican Ralph Alvarado. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Kentucky's 6th congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.