California45th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 California 45th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for California's 45th congressional district House election between Democrat Derek Tran and Republican Chuong Vo. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 California 45th District House election features Democrat Derek Tran and Republican Chuong Vo. Incumbent Representative Derek Tran is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 45th congressional district by 4.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CA-45
- Democratic candidate
- Derek Tran
- Republican candidate
- Chuong Vo
- Incumbent / open seat
- Derek Tran
- Forecast rating
- Likely D
- Projected vote
- 55.1% D / 44.9% R
- Projected margin
- D +10.2
- Forecast odds
- 88.0% D / 12.0% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —