California 452026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 45th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 45th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Derek Tran a 89% chance of defeating Republican Chuong Vo. Pollsmax projects Tran to receive 55.3% of the vote compared with 44.8% for Vo, a projected Democratic margin of 10.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 45th District House election features Democrat Derek Tran and Republican Chuong Vo. Incumbent Representative Derek Tran is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 45th congressional district by 4.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.