Minnesota 82026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Minnesota 8th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Minnesota 8th District House forecast currently gives Republican Pete Stauber a 87.5% chance of defeating Democrat Trina Swanson. Pollsmax projects Stauber to receive 55.1% of the vote compared with 44.9% for Swanson, a projected Republican margin of 10.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Minnesota 8th District House election features Democrat Trina Swanson and Republican Pete Stauber. Incumbent Representative Pete Stauber is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Minnesota's 8th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.