California21st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 California 21st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for California's 21st congressional district House election between Democrat Jim Costa and Republican Kyle Kirkland. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 California 21st District House election features Democrat Jim Costa and Republican Kyle Kirkland. Incumbent Representative Jim Costa is seeking reelection to a twelfth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 21st congressional district by 3.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CA-21
- Democratic candidate
- Jim Costa
- Republican candidate
- Kyle Kirkland
- Incumbent / open seat
- Jim Costa
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 59.9% D / 40.2% R
- Projected margin
- D +19.7
- Forecast odds
- 98.4% D / 1.6% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —