California 212026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 21st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 21st District House forecast currently gives Democrat Jim Costa a 98.5% chance of defeating Republican Kyle Kirkland. Pollsmax projects Costa to receive 60% of the vote compared with 40.1% for Kirkland, a projected Democratic margin of 19.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 21st District House election features Democrat Jim Costa and Republican Kyle Kirkland. Incumbent Representative Jim Costa is seeking reelection to a twelfth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 21st congressional district by 3.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.