Florida 222026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 Florida 22nd District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Florida's 22nd congressional district House election between Democrat TBD and Republican TBD. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 Florida 22nd District House election features Democrat TBD and Republican TBD. The seat is open in 2026, giving both parties a chance to win the district's representation in the lower chamber of Congress. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Florida's 22nd congressional district by 4.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Florida seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Florida's 22nd District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.