Florida 222026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 22nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 22nd District House forecast currently gives Republican Casey Askar a 50.3% chance of defeating Democrat Pia Dandiya. Pollsmax projects Askar to receive 50% of the vote compared with 50% for Dandiya, a projected even race. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 22nd District House election features Democrat Pia Dandiya and Republican Casey Askar. The seat is open in 2026, giving both parties a chance to win the district's representation in the lower chamber of Congress. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Florida's 22nd congressional district by 4.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Florida seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Florida's 22nd District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.