Florida 222026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 22nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 22nd District House forecast currently gives Republican Casey Askar a 71.2% chance of defeating Democrat Pia Dandiya. Pollsmax projects Askar to receive 52% of the vote compared with 48% for Dandiya, a projected Republican margin of 4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 22nd District House election features Democrat Pia Dandiya and Republican Casey Askar. The seat is open in 2026, giving both parties a chance to win the district's representation in the lower chamber of Congress. This race is rated as lean Republican. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Florida seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Florida's 22nd District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.