California 312026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 31st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 31st District House forecast currently gives Democrat Gil Cisneros a 99.7% chance of defeating Republican Eric Ching. Pollsmax projects Cisneros to receive 63.9% of the vote compared with 36.2% for Ching, a projected Democratic margin of 27.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 31st District House election features Democrat Gil Cisneros and Republican Eric Ching. Incumbent Representative Gil Cisneros is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 31st congressional district by 6.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.