Michigan 82026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Michigan 8th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Michigan 8th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet a 71.4% chance of defeating Republican Tom Smith. Pollsmax projects Rivet to receive 51.5% of the vote compared with 48.6% for Smith, a projected Democratic margin of 2.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Michigan 8th District House election features Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican Tom Smith. Incumbent Representative Kristen McDonald Rivet is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Michigan's 8th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Michigan seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Michigan's 8th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.