Patty Garcia
DEMOCRATIC
Chief of Staff to Chuy García
Illinois4th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Lupe Castillo
REPUBLICAN
Pharmacy Technician
2026 Illinois 4th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Illinois's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat Patty Garcia and Republican Lupe Castillo. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Illinois 4th District House election features Democrat Patty Garcia and Republican Lupe Castillo. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Illinois' 4th congressional district by 31.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- IL-4
- Democratic candidate
- Patty Garcia
- Republican candidate
- Lupe Castillo
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open seat
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 70.0% D / 30.0% R
- Projected margin
- D +40.0
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —