Illinois 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Illinois 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Illinois 4th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Patty Garcia a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Lupe Castillo. Pollsmax projects Garcia to receive 70% of the vote compared with 30.1% for Castillo, a projected Democratic margin of 39.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Illinois 4th District House election features Democrat Patty Garcia and Republican Lupe Castillo. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Illinois' 4th congressional district by 31.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.