James Russell
DEMOCRATIC
Mental Health Advocate
Arkansas4th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Bruce Westerman*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-AR)
2015 – Present
2026 Arkansas 4th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Arkansas's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat James Russell and Republican Bruce Westerman. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Arkansas 4th District House election features Democrat James Russell and Republican Bruce Westerman. Incumbent Representative Bruce Westerman is seeking reelection to a seventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arkansas' 4th congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- AR-4
- Democratic candidate
- James Russell
- Republican candidate
- Bruce Westerman
- Incumbent / open seat
- Bruce Westerman
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 30.0% D / 70.1% R
- Projected margin
- R +40.1
- Forecast odds
- 0.0% D / 100.0% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —