Arkansas 42026 HOUSE POLLS
2026 Arkansas 4th District House Forecast:
The Pollsmax 2026 Arkansas 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Bruce Westerman a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat James Russell. Pollsmax projects Westerman to receive 74.4% of the vote compared with 25.6% for Russell, a projected Republican margin of 48.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.
The 2026 Arkansas 4th District House election features Democrat James Russell and Republican Bruce Westerman. Incumbent Representative Bruce Westerman is seeking reelection to a seventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arkansas' 4th congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- AR-4
- Democratic candidate
- James Russell
- Republican candidate
- Bruce Westerman
- Incumbent / open seat
- Bruce Westerman
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 25.6% D / 74.4% R
- Projected margin
- R +48.8
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on September 30, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
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- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
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