Arkansas 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Arkansas 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Arkansas 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Bruce Westerman a 100% chance of defeating Democrat James Russell. Pollsmax projects Westerman to receive 70% of the vote compared with 30% for Russell, a projected Republican margin of 40 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Arkansas 4th District House election features Democrat James Russell and Republican Bruce Westerman. Incumbent Representative Bruce Westerman is seeking reelection to a seventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arkansas' 4th congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.