Florida 122026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 12th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 12th District House forecast currently gives Republican Gus Bilirakis a 96.7% chance of defeating Democrat Kimberly Overman. Pollsmax projects Bilirakis to receive 59.1% of the vote compared with 40.9% for Overman, a projected Republican margin of 18.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 12th District House election features Democrat Kimberly Overman and Republican Gus Bilirakis. Incumbent Representative Gus Bilirakis is seeking reelection to a eleventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida's 12th congressional district by 9.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.