Ohio 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Ohio 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Ohio 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Jim Jordan a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Joshua Kolasinski. Pollsmax projects Jordan to receive 68.4% of the vote compared with 31.6% for Kolasinski, a projected Republican margin of 36.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Ohio 4th District House election features Democrat Joshua Kolasinski and Republican Jim Jordan. Incumbent Representative Jim Jordan is seeking reelection to a eleventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Ohio's 4th congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Ohio conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.