Ohio4th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Ohio 4th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Ohio's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat Joshua Kolasinski and Republican Jim Jordan. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Ohio 4th District House election features Democrat Joshua Kolasinski and Republican Jim Jordan. Incumbent Representative Jim Jordan is seeking reelection to a eleventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Ohio's 4th congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Ohio conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- OH-4
- Democratic candidate
- Joshua Kolasinski
- Republican candidate
- Jim Jordan
- Incumbent / open seat
- Jim Jordan
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 31.6% D / 68.5% R
- Projected margin
- R +36.9
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —