California8th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 California 8th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for California's 8th congressional district House election between Democrat John Garamendi and Republican Rudy Recile. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 California 8th District House election features Democrat John Garamendi and Republican Rudy Recile. Incumbent Representative John Garamendi is seeking reelection to a tenth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 8th congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CA-8
- Democratic candidate
- John Garamendi
- Republican candidate
- Rudy Recile
- Incumbent / open seat
- John Garamendi
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 65.9% D / 34.2% R
- Projected margin
- D +31.7
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —