California 82026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 8th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 8th District House forecast currently gives Democrat John Garamendi a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Rudy Recile. Pollsmax projects Garamendi to receive 65.9% of the vote compared with 34.1% for Recile, a projected Democratic margin of 31.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 8th District House election features Democrat John Garamendi and Republican Rudy Recile. Incumbent Representative John Garamendi is seeking reelection to a tenth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 8th congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.