Arizona 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Arizona 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Arizona 4th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Greg Stanton a 89.1% chance of defeating Republican Zuhdi Jasser. Pollsmax projects Stanton to receive 55.4% of the vote compared with 44.6% for Jasser, a projected Democratic margin of 10.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Arizona 4th District House election features Democrat Greg Stanton and Republican Zuhdi Jasser. Incumbent Representative Greg Stanton is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arizona's 4th congressional district by 22.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026.