Arizona 42026 HOUSE FORECAST

Zuhdi Jasser

REPUBLICAN

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2026 Arizona 4th District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Arizona's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat Greg Stanton and Republican Zuhdi Jasser. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 Arizona 4th District House election features Democrat Greg Stanton and Republican Zuhdi Jasser. Incumbent Representative Greg Stanton is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arizona's 4th congressional district by 22.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026.

Year: 2026
Race: House
District: AZ-4
Democratic candidate: Greg Stanton
Republican candidate: Zuhdi Jasser
Incumbent / open seat: Greg Stanton
Forecast rating: Likely D
Projected vote: 55.4% D / 44.7% R
Projected margin: D +10.7
Forecast odds: 89.6% D / 10.4% R
Forecast last updated: 12:00 AM on August 16, 2026
Polling average: —
Polling average margin: —
Polling last updated: —
Polls included: 0
Latest poll: —