Texas32nd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Texas 32nd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Texas's 32nd congressional district House election between Democrat Dan Barrios and Republican Jace Yarbrough. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Texas 32nd District House election features Democrat Dan Barrios and Republican Jace Yarbrough. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 32nd congressional district by 6.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TX-32
- Democratic candidate
- Dan Barrios
- Republican candidate
- Jace Yarbrough
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open seat
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 44.7% D / 55.3% R
- Projected margin
- R +10.6
- Forecast odds
- 11.1% D / 88.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —