Texas 322026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 32nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 32nd District House forecast currently gives Republican Jace Yarbrough a 89.6% chance of defeating Democrat Dan Barrios. Pollsmax projects Yarbrough to receive 55.3% of the vote compared with 44.8% for Barrios, a projected Republican margin of 10.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 32nd District House election features Democrat Dan Barrios and Republican Jace Yarbrough. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 32nd congressional district by 6.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.