Illinois 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Illinois 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Illinois 5th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Mike Quigley a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Tommy Hanson. Pollsmax projects Quigley to receive 75.5% of the vote compared with 24.5% for Hanson, a projected Democratic margin of 51 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Illinois 5th District House election features Democrat Mike Quigley and Republican Tommy Hanson. Incumbent Representative Mike Quigley is seeking reelection to a tenth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Illinois' 5th congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.