Florida 112026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 11th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 11th District House forecast currently gives Republican Joe Strada a 98.7% chance of defeating Democrat James Pericola. Pollsmax projects Strada to receive 59.9% of the vote compared with 40.1% for Pericola, a projected Republican margin of 19.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 11th District House election features Democrat James Pericola and Republican Joe Strada. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida's 11th congressional district by 16.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.