Sarah Elfreth*
DEMOCRATIC
US House of Representatives (D-MD)
2025 – Present
Maryland3rd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Berney Flowers
REPUBLICAN
NORAD and USNORTHCOM Inter-Agency Technical Advisor
2026 Maryland 3rd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Maryland's 3rd congressional district House election between Democrat Sarah Elfreth and Republican Berney Flowers. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Maryland 3rd District House election features Democrat Sarah Elfreth and Republican Berney Flowers. Incumbent Representative Sarah Elfreth is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Maryland's 3rd congressional district by 11.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- MD-3
- Democratic candidate
- Sarah Elfreth
- Republican candidate
- Berney Flowers
- Incumbent / open seat
- Sarah Elfreth
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 62.8% D / 37.2% R
- Projected margin
- D +25.6
- Forecast odds
- 99.4% D / 0.6% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —