Maryland 32026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Maryland 3rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Maryland 3rd District House forecast currently gives Democrat Sarah Elfreth a 99.5% chance of defeating Republican Berney Flowers. Pollsmax projects Elfreth to receive 63% of the vote compared with 37% for Flowers, a projected Democratic margin of 26 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Maryland 3rd District House election features Democrat Sarah Elfreth and Republican Berney Flowers. Incumbent Representative Sarah Elfreth is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Maryland's 3rd congressional district by 11.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.