Tennessee 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Tennessee 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Tennessee 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Diana Harshbarger a 100% chance of defeating Democrat Kristi Burke. Pollsmax projects Harshbarger to receive 74.3% of the vote compared with 25.8% for Burke, a projected Republican margin of 48.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Tennessee 1st District House election features Democrat Kristi Burke and Republican Diana Harshbarger. Incumbent Representative Diana Harshbarger is seeking reelection to a fourth term. This race is rated as solid Republican. Tennessee conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.