Tennessee 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Tennessee 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Tennessee 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Diana Harshbarger a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Kristi Burke. Pollsmax projects Harshbarger to receive 78.2% of the vote compared with 21.9% for Burke, a projected Republican margin of 56.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Tennessee 1st District House election features Democrat Kristi Burke and Republican Diana Harshbarger. Incumbent Representative Diana Harshbarger is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee's 1st congressional district by 29.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Tennessee conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.