Texas34th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 Texas 34th District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Texas's 34th congressional district House election between Democrat Vicente Gonzalez and Republican Eric Flores. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 Texas 34th District House election features Democrat Vicente Gonzalez and Republican Eric Flores. Incumbent Representative Vicente Gonzalez is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Texas' 34th congressional district by 8.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Texas seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Texas' 34th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.