Texas 342026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 34th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 34th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Vicente Gonzalez a 75.1% chance of defeating Republican Eric Flores. Pollsmax projects Gonzalez to receive 51.8% of the vote compared with 48.2% for Flores, a projected Democratic margin of 3.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 34th District House election features Democrat Vicente Gonzalez and Republican Eric Flores. Incumbent Representative Vicente Gonzalez is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Texas' 34th congressional district by 8.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Texas seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Texas' 34th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.