Utah 42026 HOUSE POLLS
2026 Utah 4th District House Forecast:
The Pollsmax 2026 Utah 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Mike Kennedy a 99.5% chance of defeating Democrat Jonny Larsen. Pollsmax projects Kennedy to receive 63.2% of the vote compared with 36.9% for Larsen, a projected Republican margin of 26.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.
The 2026 Utah 4th District House election features Democrat Jonny Larsen and Republican Mike Kennedy. Incumbent Representative Mike Kennedy is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Utah's 4th congressional district by 14.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Utah conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- UT-4
- Democratic candidate
- Jonny Larsen
- Republican candidate
- Mike Kennedy
- Incumbent / open seat
- Mike Kennedy
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 36.9% D / 63.2% R
- Projected margin
- R +26.3
- Forecast odds
- 0.5% D / 99.5% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on September 30, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
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