Utah4th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Utah 4th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Utah's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat Jonny Larsen and Republican Mike Kennedy. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Utah 4th District House election features Democrat Jonny Larsen and Republican Mike Kennedy. Incumbent Representative Mike Kennedy is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Utah's 4th congressional district by 14.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Utah conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- UT-4
- Democratic candidate
- Jonny Larsen
- Republican candidate
- Mike Kennedy
- Incumbent / open seat
- Mike Kennedy
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 36.7% D / 63.3% R
- Projected margin
- R +26.6
- Forecast odds
- 0.4% D / 99.6% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —