Utah 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Utah 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Utah 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Mike Kennedy a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Jonny Larsen. Pollsmax projects Kennedy to receive 60.3% of the vote compared with 39.7% for Larsen, a projected Republican margin of 20.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Utah 4th District House election features Democrat Jonny Larsen and Republican Mike Kennedy. Incumbent Representative Mike Kennedy is seeking reelection to a second term. This race is rated as solid Republican. Utah conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.