California23rd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 California 23rd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for California's 23rd congressional district House election between Democrat Tessa Hodge and Republican Jay Obernolte. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 California 23rd District House election features Democrat Tessa Hodge and Republican Jay Obernolte. Incumbent Representative Jay Obernolte is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 23rd congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CA-23
- Democratic candidate
- Tessa Hodge
- Republican candidate
- Jay Obernolte
- Incumbent / open seat
- Jay Obernolte
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 40.0% D / 60.0% R
- Projected margin
- R +20.0
- Forecast odds
- 1.4% D / 98.6% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —