California 232026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 23rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 23rd District House forecast currently gives Republican Jay Obernolte a 98.4% chance of defeating Democrat Tessa Hodge. Pollsmax projects Obernolte to receive 60% of the vote compared with 40.1% for Hodge, a projected Republican margin of 19.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 23rd District House election features Democrat Tessa Hodge and Republican Jay Obernolte. Incumbent Representative Jay Obernolte is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 23rd congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.