California 232026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 23rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 23rd District House forecast currently gives Republican Jay Obernolte a 99.1% chance of defeating Democrat Tessa Hodge. Pollsmax projects Obernolte to receive 57.7% of the vote compared with 42.3% for Hodge, a projected Republican margin of 15.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 23rd District House election features Democrat Tessa Hodge and Republican Jay Obernolte. Incumbent Representative Jay Obernolte is seeking reelection to a fourth term. This race is rated as solid Republican. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.