Texas17th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Texas 17th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Texas's 17th congressional district House election between Democrat Casey Shepard and Republican Pete Sessions. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Texas 17th District House election features Democrat Casey Shepard and Republican Pete Sessions. Incumbent Representative Pete Sessions is seeking reelection to a fifteenth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 17th congressional district by 13.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TX-17
- Democratic candidate
- Casey Shepard
- Republican candidate
- Pete Sessions
- Incumbent / open seat
- Pete Sessions
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 40.2% D / 59.8% R
- Projected margin
- R +19.6
- Forecast odds
- 2.3% D / 97.7% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —