Florida 262026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 26th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 26th District House forecast currently gives Republican Mario Díaz-Balart a 94.1% chance of defeating Democrat Nicole Locklin. Pollsmax projects Díaz-Balart to receive 57.4% of the vote compared with 42.6% for Locklin, a projected Republican margin of 14.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 26th District House election features Democrat Nicole Locklin and Republican Mario Díaz-Balart. Incumbent Representative Mario Díaz-Balart is seeking reelection to a thirteenth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Florida's 26th congressional district by 4.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.