Florida26th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Florida 26th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Florida's 26th congressional district House election between Democrat Nicole Locklin and Republican Mario Díaz-Balart. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Florida 26th District House election features Democrat Nicole Locklin and Republican Mario Díaz-Balart. Incumbent Representative Mario Díaz-Balart is seeking reelection to a thirteenth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Florida's 26th congressional district by 4.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- FL-26
- Democratic candidate
- Nicole Locklin
- Republican candidate
- Mario Díaz-Balart
- Incumbent / open seat
- Mario Díaz-Balart
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 42.6% D / 57.5% R
- Projected margin
- R +14.9
- Forecast odds
- 5.5% D / 94.5% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —