Virginia 22026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Virginia 2nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Virginia 2nd District House forecast currently gives Republican Jen Kiggans a 55.8% chance of defeating Democrat Elaine Luria. Pollsmax projects Kiggans to receive 50.2% of the vote compared with 49.8% for Luria, a projected Republican margin of 0.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Virginia 2nd District House election features Democrat Elaine Luria and Republican Jen Kiggans. Incumbent Representative Jen Kiggans is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Virginia's 2nd congressional district by 4.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Virginia seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Virginia's 2nd District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.