Democrats
DEMOCRATIC
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Michigan11th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Ethan Baker
REPUBLICAN
Mayor of Troy
2019 – Present
2026 Michigan 11th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Michigan's 11th congressional district House election between Democrat TBD and Republican Ethan Baker. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Michigan 11th District House election features Democrat TBD and Republican Ethan Baker. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Michigan's 11th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- MI-11
- Democratic candidate
- TBD
- Republican candidate
- Ethan Baker
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open seat
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 58.1% D / 42.0% R
- Projected margin
- D +16.1
- Forecast odds
- 95.9% D / 4.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
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- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
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