Michigan 112026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Michigan 11th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Michigan 11th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Jeremy Moss a 96.2% chance of defeating Republican Ethan Baker. Pollsmax projects Moss to receive 58.1% of the vote compared with 41.9% for Baker, a projected Democratic margin of 16.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Michigan 11th District House election features Democrat Jeremy Moss and Republican Ethan Baker. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Michigan's 11th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.