Missouri 12026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Missouri 1st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Missouri's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Wesley Bell and Republican TBD. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Missouri 1st District House election features Democrat Wesley Bell and Republican TBD. Incumbent Representative Wesley Bell is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Missouri's 1st congressional district by 27.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. Missouri conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- MO-1
- Democratic candidate
- Wesley Bell
- Republican candidate
- TBD
- Incumbent / open seat
- Wesley Bell
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 69.9% D / 30.1% R
- Projected margin
- D +39.8
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —