Missouri 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Missouri 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Missouri 1st District House forecast currently gives Democrat Wesley Bell a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Paul Berry. Pollsmax projects Bell to receive 77.1% of the vote compared with 22.9% for Berry, a projected Democratic margin of 54.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Missouri 1st District House election features Democrat Wesley Bell and Republican Paul Berry. Incumbent Representative Wesley Bell is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Missouri's 1st congressional district by 27.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.