Florida 152026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 15th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 15th District House forecast currently gives Republican Laurel Lee a 96.4% chance of defeating Democrat Robert People. Pollsmax projects Lee to receive 58.7% of the vote compared with 41.4% for People, a projected Republican margin of 17.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 15th District House election features Democrat Robert People and Republican Laurel Lee. Incumbent Representative Laurel Lee is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida's 15th congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.