Michigan 102026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Michigan 10th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Michigan 10th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Christina Hines a 51.9% chance of defeating Republican Mike Bouchard Jr.. Pollsmax projects Hines to receive 50.2% of the vote compared with 49.9% for Bouchard, a projected Democratic margin of 0.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Michigan 10th District House election features Democrat Christina Hines and Republican Mike Bouchard Jr. The seat is open in 2026, giving both parties a chance to win the district's representation in the lower chamber of Congress. In 2024, Donald Trump won Michigan's 10th congressional district by 14.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Michigan seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Michigan's 10th District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.