Florida 102026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Florida 10th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Florida's 10th congressional district House election between Democrat Maxwell Frost and Republican TBD. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Florida 10th District House election features Democrat Maxwell Frost and Republican TBD. Incumbent Representative Maxwell Frost is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Florida's 10th congressional district by 9.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- FL-10
- Democratic candidate
- Maxwell Frost
- Republican candidate
- TBD
- Incumbent / open seat
- Maxwell Frost
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 64.2% D / 35.9% R
- Projected margin
- D +28.3
- Forecast odds
- 99.8% D / 0.2% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —