Florida 102026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 10th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 10th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Maxwell Frost a 99.7% chance of defeating the Republican nominee. Pollsmax projects Frost to receive 64.2% of the vote compared with 35.8% for the Republican nominee, a projected Democratic margin of 28.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 10th District House election features Democrat Maxwell Frost and Republican TBD. Incumbent Representative Maxwell Frost is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Florida's 10th congressional district by 9.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.