California42nd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 California 42nd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for California's 42nd congressional district House election between Democrat Robert Garcia and Republican Brian Burley. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 California 42nd District House election features Democrat Robert Garcia and Republican Brian Burley. Incumbent Representative Robert Garcia is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 42nd congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CA-42
- Democratic candidate
- Robert Garcia
- Republican candidate
- Brian Burley
- Incumbent / open seat
- Robert Garcia
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 60.7% D / 39.3% R
- Projected margin
- D +21.4
- Forecast odds
- 99.0% D / 1.0% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —