California 422026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 42nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 42nd District House forecast currently gives Democrat Robert Garcia a 99.2% chance of defeating Republican Brian Burley. Pollsmax projects Garcia to receive 60.8% of the vote compared with 39.2% for Burley, a projected Democratic margin of 21.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 42nd District House election features Democrat Robert Garcia and Republican Brian Burley. Incumbent Representative Robert Garcia is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 42nd congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.