Montana 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Montana 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Montana 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Aaron Flint a 52.8% chance of defeating Democrat Sam Forstag. Pollsmax projects Flint to receive 50.3% of the vote compared with 49.8% for Forstag, a projected Republican margin of 0.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Montana 1st District House election features Democrat Sam Forstag and Republican Aaron Flint. The seat is open in 2026, giving both parties a chance to win the district's representation in the lower chamber of Congress. In 2024, Donald Trump won Montana's 1st congressional district by 11.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Montana seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Montana's 1st District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.