Montana1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 Montana 1st District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Montana's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Sam Forstag and Republican Aaron Flint. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 Montana 1st District House election features Democrat Sam Forstag and Republican Aaron Flint. The seat is open in 2026, giving both parties a chance to win the district's representation in the lower chamber of Congress. In 2024, Donald Trump won Montana's 1st congressional district by 11.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Montana seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Montana's 1st District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.