Texas 152026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 15th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 15th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Bobby Pulido a 63.1% chance of defeating Republican Monica De La Cruz. Pollsmax projects Pulido to receive 50.5% of the vote compared with 49.6% for Cruz, a projected Democratic margin of 0.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 15th District House election features Democrat Bobby Pulido and Republican Monica De La Cruz. Incumbent Representative Monica De La Cruz is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Texas' 15th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Texas seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Texas' 15th District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.