Texas 112026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 11th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 11th District House forecast currently gives Republican August Pfluger a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Claire Reynolds. Pollsmax projects Pfluger to receive 65% of the vote compared with 35% for Reynolds, a projected Republican margin of 30 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 11th District House election features Democrat Claire Reynolds and Republican August Pfluger. Incumbent Representative August Pfluger is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 11th congressional district by 33.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.