Texas11th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Texas 11th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Texas's 11th congressional district House election between Democrat Claire Reynolds and Republican August Pfluger. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Texas 11th District House election features Democrat Claire Reynolds and Republican August Pfluger. Incumbent Representative August Pfluger is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 11th congressional district by 33.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TX-11
- Democratic candidate
- Claire Reynolds
- Republican candidate
- August Pfluger
- Incumbent / open seat
- August Pfluger
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 34.9% D / 65.2% R
- Projected margin
- R +30.3
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —