Hawaii 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Hawaii 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Hawaii 1st District House forecast currently gives Democrat Ed Case a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Adriel Lam. Pollsmax projects Case to receive 74.9% of the vote compared with 25.1% for Lam, a projected Democratic margin of 49.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Hawaii 1st District House election features Democrat Ed Case and Republican Adriel Lam. Incumbent Representative Ed Case is seeking reelection to a eighth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Hawaii's 1st congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.