Ed Case*
DEMOCRATIC
US House of Representatives (D-HI)
2002 – 2007, 2019 – Present
Hawaii1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Adriel Lam
REPUBLICAN
2026 Hawaii 1st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Hawaii's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Ed Case and Republican Adriel Lam. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Hawaii 1st District House election features Democrat Ed Case and Republican Adriel Lam. Incumbent Representative Ed Case is seeking reelection to a eighth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Hawaii's 1st congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- HI-1
- Democratic candidate
- Ed Case
- Republican candidate
- Adriel Lam
- Incumbent / open seat
- Ed Case
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 70.0% D / 30.1% R
- Projected margin
- D +39.9
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —