Florida 282026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 28th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 28th District House forecast currently gives Republican Carlos Giménez a 95.3% chance of defeating Democrat Phil Ehr. Pollsmax projects Giménez to receive 57.5% of the vote compared with 42.6% for Ehr, a projected Republican margin of 14.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 28th District House election features Democrat Phil Ehr and Republican Carlos Giménez. Incumbent Representative Carlos Giménez is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida's 28th congressional district by 6.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.