Florida 282026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 28th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 28th District House forecast currently gives Republican Carlos Giménez a 96.5% chance of defeating Democrat Phil Ehr. Pollsmax projects Giménez to receive 56% of the vote compared with 44.1% for Ehr, a projected Republican margin of 11.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 28th District House election features Democrat Phil Ehr and Republican Carlos Giménez. Incumbent Representative Carlos Giménez is seeking reelection to a fourth term. This race is rated as solid Republican. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.