Florida28th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Florida 28th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Florida's 28th congressional district House election between Democrat Phil Ehr and Republican Carlos Giménez. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Florida 28th District House election features Democrat Phil Ehr and Republican Carlos Giménez. Incumbent Representative Carlos Giménez is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida's 28th congressional district by 6.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- FL-28
- Democratic candidate
- Phil Ehr
- Republican candidate
- Carlos Giménez
- Incumbent / open seat
- Carlos Giménez
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 42.4% D / 57.6% R
- Projected margin
- R +15.2
- Forecast odds
- 4.7% D / 95.3% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —