Alabama4th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Alabama 4th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Alabama's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat Amanda Pusczek and Republican Robert Aderholt. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Alabama 4th District House election features Democrat Amanda Pusczek and Republican Robert Aderholt. Incumbent Representative Robert Aderholt is seeking reelection to a sixteenth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Alabama's 4th congressional district by 31.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Alabama conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- AL-4
- Democratic candidate
- Amanda Pusczek
- Republican candidate
- Robert Aderholt
- Incumbent / open seat
- Robert Aderholt
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 30.0% D / 70.1% R
- Projected margin
- R +40.1
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —