Texas 102026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 10th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 10th District House forecast currently gives Republican Chris Gober a 98.8% chance of defeating Democrat Caitlin Rourk. Pollsmax projects Gober to receive 60% of the vote compared with 40% for Rourk, a projected Republican margin of 20 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 10th District House election features Democrat Caitlin Rourk and Republican Chris Gober. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 10th congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.